Friday, March 11, 2022

Big Pool Favorites Baylor, Southern Utah, UC Irvine and Southern Go Down

I wanted to ensure I pushed out a short entry today with all the losing that is happening in our pool. Without any championship games today the losing will continue so hang on. Pizzy, Pat and Tom are in fantastic shape with an accuracy percentage greater than 50% but we have watched overall pool accuracy plummet the past few days and are now in much more normal range. Starting Wednesday morning our overall pool accuracy was at 42.7% and only 48 hours later we're down to 35.5%

The night started off in the Big 12 where (2) Baylor was defeated by (7) Oklahoma in a quarterfinals stunner. Although Kansas is the one seed, 51% of our pool picks were on Baylor and the analytics favored Baylor to win the Big 12 conference. 

In the Big Sky we had less of a pool upset since we're a bit more spread out, but still worth calling out that (2) Southern Utah went down to (7) Portland state, knocking 9 people out of that conference. This is a conference to watch for our pool as (1) Montanan State is the analytics favorite, but (4) Weber State is our pool favorite. This looks to be a pivotal conference for our pool depending how today's games turn out.

Moving to the Big West, pool favorite (4) UC Irvine was beat by (5) UCSB. To the rest of the sports world that is not an upset, but in our pool 54% of our picks were on the Anteaters making this conference wide open now. 

Finally, in one of my least favorite conferences, yet another bonus point team went down when (6) Grambling State beat (3) Southern, causing 11 losses in our pool. Not to be confused with (2) Texas Southern that is still alive, which is a pool favorite to win at 60% and an analytics favorite to win with a 33% probability.


The top 10 is super interesting to look at with all the losses that have occurred over the past few days. Pizzy and Pat are obviously in great shape based on total points, but down in 5th place Tom has the overall max points available meaning he could jump to the top quickly. Tim and The Gruesome Threesome are sitting in 3rd & 4th place and both have some unique picks that can separate them, for good or bad. Finally, looking at 6 through 10 it's going to be hard for Sohler as his max points are the lowest of the top 10, meaning most upsets hurt him as he is a chalk guy.


Our standings are completely up to date through all conference tournament action last night.

Link to Standing

Click HERE or use the full URL below. 

https://1drv.ms/u/s!AsXZYEv74FyvhuUNqFVB8_-W7TeBlQ?e=gDAbuX

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